Archive for January, 2012

WoD – The New/Old Normal

Hi.  Been a while.  How are you?  I’m fine.

With that out of the way, I was revisiting some of my WoD drafts (so I could send one without having to be too original today.  Baby steps and all that…)  I had used Dragon Dictation to send myself an email with an idea or two.  Here, I think, is what I was trying to get at.

“I heard someone on CNBC radio talk about the “new normal.”  His new normal was the post-2008 financial markets world we are living in.  In his opinion, the recession changed everything – there is not a “normal,” but rather a “new normal” now – more risk, more volatility, more too big to fail and govt. intervention and scary times, etc. etc.

But I would posit that maybe, just maybe, the new normal is, in fact, the old normal.  We are back to our old societal habits before the financial crisis, aren’t we?  Maybe we learned a few things, but have we really done much all that differently (save for pushing through a rather excessive big regulation bill)?  Aren’t banks as big as ever?  Aren’t we all still just about as invested in stocks and investment vehicles we only sort of understand and certainly have no control over?  Don’t credit default swaps still exist (whatever they are)?  Isn’t there as much inherent risk in the “system” as there always was?

Which leads me to a different conclusion all together.  (It wouldn’t be WoD-like otherwise!)  Maybe we as humans just don’t ever really prepare for bad outcomes properly.  We address outcomes that occurred in the past (Dodd-Frank), but we just aren’t at all good at being proactive against big but ethereal risks and Black Swans coming in the future.  We fix our basements after they have succumbed to water damage.  We pack a flashlight and safety bag, but only after we have been caught out without electricity or heat.  We eat healthily only after the minor heart attack.  I could go on and on.

What do we make of this?  It is all kind of stupid of us, isn’t it?  Are we that lazy that we can’t stick a flashlight, change of underwear and $100 bill in a backpack in the basement?  (Yes.)  Are we too lazy to sell a stock, when all it really takes is a few mouse clicks?  (This is actually more of a gambling problem than a laziness problem.  But that is probably another post altogether.)

So, perhaps the inability to stomach the costs of managing big-but-uncertain future risk is inherent in our DNA.  What I am saying is, perhaps it is human nature (and by this I mean more hard-wired or coded by our DNA, as opposed to learned through our environment) to stick our heads in the sand and just “roll the dice,” when it comes to future risks and taking appropriate precautions against small-likelihood-but-big-and-scary outcomes.  No matter how hard we try (individually or collectively as a society), we just can’t help gambling on the future…”

The second thing to conclude from the stuff below is that Dragon Dictation sucks.

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I heard someone on CNBC today talking about the new normal is at the new normal Just maybe the old normal are we back to its equity old habits that we had we had the financial crisis in the first place not sure we we learned a few things but I’m not sure we’ve done much differently other than a big regulation bill so the point is maybe us as humans that just don’t ever prepare for really bad outcomes we’re fixing or dressing outcomes that occurred in the past will never be proactive against the risks and big Blackswan are coming in the future perhaps if he inherent in human cell we can’t stomach the cost of managing for all the future risks so we just let them come as they come maybe this is just human nature

Sent from my iPhone.

Tuesday:

KNAKER (KNAHKehr)

Big shot

Look at that knaker, driving all around town in his fancy new car…



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